Recreational Use & Carrying Capacity Assessment
Lookout Shoals Lake Existing Recreational Areas
There are 2 developed Duke Power-owned public recreational access areas on Lookout Shoals Lake. There are no state or county park facilities located along the lake, and Figure 3.4-1 shows the public recreational access locations. There are two commercial residential marinas on Lookout Shoals Lake. There are no public commercial non-residential marinas located on Lookout Shoals Lake. The following sections describe the Duke Power-owned public access area facilities at Lookout Shoals Lake.
Existing Duke Power-Owned Public Access Areas
The developed Duke Power-owned public access areas provide about 39 acres and about 2,492 feet of shoreline frontage of public access at Lookout Shoals Lake. Combined, the developed access areas have 3 public boat ramps, 4 loading piers, and about 74 vehicle/trailer parking spaces. Table 3.4-3 summarizes the facilities at these public access areas.
In the 1994 SMP, Duke Power proposed to improve the Lookout Shoals access area (replace 2 ramps with 2 new boat ramps, pave the site and light the parking area) and Sharon access area (replace the ramp with a new ramp, pave the site and light the parking area). The Lookout Shoals access area improvements will be completed in 2001 and the Sharon improvements will be completed in early 2002, in order not to have both sites closed at the same time, which will meet all of the 1994 SMP commitments. In addition, Duke Power has added 23 acres of land to the Lookout Shoals site.
The NCWRC has entered into a creative partnership with Duke Power for the maintenance and operation of the non-leased access areas. Under this agreement Duke Power pays the NCWRC to maintain the access areas and the NCWRC makes at least the same capital dollar amount available to Duke Power, and agency lessees for the non boat launching portion of the access areas, for improvements that will help the boating public. This agreement is a continuation of a long established partnership with the NCWRC with the added benefit of designated cost sharing capital dollars for access area improvements.
Table 3.4-3
Lookout Shoals Lake Duke Power-Owned Public Access Areas
| Access Area Name | Acreage | Shoreline Frontage (ft) |
Boat Ramps | Loading Piers | Fishing Piers | Car Parking (Spaces) |
V/T* Parking (Spaces) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lookout Shoals | 30.3 | 2,237 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Sharon | 8.8 | 255 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| Total | 39.1 | 2,492 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 74 |
* Vehicle/Trailer parking area.
Existing Commercial and Private Recreational Access
There are, currently, no public marinas on Lookout Shoals Lake. Private access to Lookout Shoals Lake is through private marinas and private piers along the Lookout Shoals Lake shoreline. Table 3.4-4 summarizes the number and types of public and private commercial non-residential and commercial residential marina facilities. Table 3.4-5 summarizes the estimated number of private piers.
Table 3.4-4
Summary of Lookout Shoals Lake Commercial Recreational Access Facilities
| Type of Facility | Commercial Non-Residential |
Commercial Residential |
|---|---|---|
| Public Marinas | 0 | 0 |
| Private Marinas | 0 | 2 |
| Wet Slips | 0 | 13 |
| Dry Slips | 0 | 0 |
Table 3.4-5
Summary of Lookout Shoals Lake Private Recreational Access Facilities
| Type of Facility | No. Private Facilities |
|---|---|
| Piers | 250 |
Lookout Shoals Lake Recreational Use Assessment
Visitation figures at the public access areas on Lookout Shoals Lake were derived based on estimates of the traffic entering the Duke Power-owned public access areas. Total estimated visitation during the 1999 study period for Lookout Shoals Lake at these sites was 48,780 visits. Figure 3.4-2 shows the distribution of the visitation for each month at Lookout Shoals Lake for the Duke Power-owned public access areas during the 1999 study period. A visit is considered a vehicle or vehicle/trailer entering the site for any part of a day.
Table 3.4-6 provides a summary of the estimated recreational visitation based on the traffic counter data for the sampled sites during the 1999 study period. Based on survey data input, the estimated ratio for annual visits to the project area for Survey B respondents (respondents that use both public and private access areas) as compared to Survey C respondents (respondents at the public access areas) was a ratio of 1.3 to 1. The estimated overall recreational visitation for Lookout Shoals Lake for the 1999 study period totaled 63,605 visits.
Lookout Shoals Lake Boat Carrying Capacity Assessment
The overall boat carrying capacity is assessed based on the peak boating use estimates obtained during the flyovers in the 1999 study period. The available boating acreage was adjusted from the base boats per acreage estimate (see Table 3.4-7) by the following factors (Warren and Rea, 1989, as modified):
| Factor | Adjustment | |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Location of the lake in relation to population served | 0 |
| 2. | Multiple use of water area | - |
| 3. | Shoreline configuration | - |
| 4. | Amount of open water | - |
| 5. | Amount of facility and shoreline development | 0 |
| 6. | Crowding rating | 0 |
| Total | -3 | |
Table 3.4-7
Boat Type Acreage Adjustment
(Source: Modified from Warren and Rea, 1989)
| Boat Activity Type | Low | -4 | -3 | -2 | -1 | Base | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fishing | 10.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Canoe/kayak | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Motor boating | 18.0 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 |
| Sailing | 10.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Jet skiing | 10.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Water skiing | 20.0 | 18.0 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 |
Table 3.4-8 summarizes the assessment of the optimum overall boat capacity based on the usable water surface acreage and the boating activity mix identified from the surveys. Table 3.4-9 provides the assessment of the percent capacity of the boat use for Lookout Shoals Lake on the peak day during the 1999 study period. Lookout Shoals Lake during the weekday was estimated at 21 percent capacity, during the weekend at 16 percent capacity, and during the peak holiday period at 44 percent capacity for overall boating use.
Table 3.4-8
Lookout Shoals Lake Boat Carrying Capacity Assessment
| Boat Activity | Usable Acreage | Use Factor | Opt. No. Boats | % Usage | Boat Activity Mix |
Persons/ Boat | Total Users |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fishing | 1,305 | 8.0 | 163 | 42% | 68 | 3.14 | 215 |
| Canoe/Kayak | 1,305 | 2.0 | 653 | 6% | 42 | 3.26 | 137 |
| Motor Boating | 898 | 15.0 | 60 | 16% | 10 | 3.90 | 38 |
| Sailing | 898 | 8.0 | 112 | 3% | 4 | 3.36 | 12 |
| Jet Skiing | 898 | 8.0 | 112 | 19% | 22 | 3.85 | 84 |
| Water Skiing | 898 | 17.0 | 53 | 13% | 7 | 4.39 | 30 |
| Total | 100% | 152 | 515 |
Table 3.4-9
Lookout Shoals Lake Estimated 1999 Study Period Boat Capacity
| Peak Use | Weekday | % Capacity | Weekend | % Capacity | Holiday | % Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. Boats | 32 | 21% | 24 | 16% | 67 | 44% |
The optimum boat carrying capacity assessment provides an assessment of the total surface area available for boating use. To assess the areas of the lakes with higher density of boating use, the general location of boating activity was recorded during the flyovers for each day of aerial coverage. Figure 3.4-3 shows the location of boats during the peak use day for Lookout Shoals Lake. Figure 3.4-4 shows the boating density on Lookout Shoals Lake for the peak use day and denotes areas where the greatest clustering of boating activity occurred. Figure 3.4-5 shows the boat density map based on the composite of the three highest boating use days. This figure illustrates the areas where boating use most often occurred during the peak use days during the study period and provides an assessment of areas with high density boating during this same period.
Based on the boat capacity study in Table 3.4-9, there are no crowding problems on Lookout Shoals Lake. The highest capacity reached was 44% on a holiday weekend. The Peak Use Day Boat Density map, Figure 3.4-4 (for only one day), does show one area where the boat density is higher than the rest of the lake, but the acres available per boat for are adequate for all boating activities. When averaging the three highest boat count days, Figure 3.4-5, there is only one area where boat density is higher than the rest of the lake. For all of the remaining times during the year the boat density levels are very low.
Lookout Shoals Lake Estimated Future Recreational Demand
Table 3.4-10 provides the population projections for the counties within 50-60 miles of Lookout Shoals Lake. Population projections were conducted for the impact zone using a combination of 1970 - 1990 population data and 2000 and 2010 population projections from U.S. Census Bureau data; these figures were used to make projections for 2030, 2040, and 2050.
Table 3.4-10
Lookout Shoals Lake Estimated Population Projections for the Impact Zone
| County | 1999 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burke | 77,086 | 85,651 | 92,340 | 98,366 | 108,595 | 119,888 | 132,355 |
| Wilkes | 176,416 | 64,407 | 66,789 | 68,158 | 72,777 | 77,710 | 82,976 |
| Alexander | 29,121 | 32,357 | 36,056 | 39,314 | 45,333 | 52,273 | 60,275 |
| Watauga | 37,759 | 41,954 | 45,542 | 48,552 | 51,821 | 55,310 | 59,033 |
| Avery | 14,149 | 15,721 | 16,002 | 16,054 | 16,853 | 17,692 | 18,573 |
| Caldwell | 68,560 | 76,178 | 78,758 | 80,411 | 86,374 | 92,779 | 99,659 |
| Davie | 29,402 | 32,669 | 36,116 | 39,072 | 45,301 | 52,524 | 60,898 |
| Cleveland | 83,358 | 92,620 | 96,803 | 100,034 | 106,779 | 113,979 | 121,664 |
| Lincoln | 54,839 | 60,932 | 70,132 | 79,229 | 94,689 | 113,166 | 135,248 |
| Catawba | 120,581 | 133,979 | 146,217 | 157,650 | 176,071 | 196,645 | 219,623 |
| Iredell | 103,671 | 115,190 | 133,065 | 150,827 | 174,879 | 202,766 | 235,100 |
| Total | 794,942 | 751,658 | 817,820 | 877,667 | 979,473 | 1,094,732 | 1,225,404 |
Table 3.4-11 provides the estimated recreational use for the impact zone through the year 2050. Current use estimates are based on spot counts and responses to surveys. The recreational use projections were estimated by computing the projected population increase for the impact zone and incorporating indexed values for future recreational use for the various activities. The index values for each activity were obtained from "Outdoor Recreation in American Life: A National Assessment of Demand and Supply Trends" (Cordell, 1999). The indices are based on models that incorporate a number of variables, including age structure of the population, income, race, sex, and population density, as well as other explanatory variables. Full model parameters and estimates are available from the author.
Table 3.4-12 shows the estimated absorption percentage for the four major recreation activities that require specific lands and facilities. Picnicking, swimming, camping, and boating are activities that require specific developed facilities. The other activities listed are dispersed activities that can take place at a variety of undeveloped areas. The estimated 1999 use levels are from Table 3.4-11. The estimated demand is based on the impact zone population (population of all counties within 50-60 miles of the lake). The impact zone population is multiplied by the participation rate for the activity, which was obtained from "Emerging Markets for Outdoor Recreation in the United States: Based on the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment" (Cordell et al., 1996). Participation rates are for the South and are similar to 1995 North Carolina and South Carolina SCORP data. Specific participation rates are as follows: swimming, 37.3%; picnicking, 44.8%; camping 22.4%; boating, 45.0%. The product of the impact zone population and participation rates are then multiplied by the estimated of number of days of participation for each activity, which were obtained from the 1995 North Carolina SCORP. The 1999 estimated number of participants for each activity was then divided by the 1999 estimated demand to obtain the estimated absorption percentage. Absorption percentage is defined as the percent of total demand for the impact zone that is met by the individual lake.
Table 3.4-13 provides the estimate of the recreational facilities land acreage needed to meet the future recreational demand through the year 2050. The weighted population is the estimated impact zone population multiplied by the participation rate for each activity. The facility standards and estimated acreage needs for the facility class are based on State SCORPS and FERC Guidelines for Outdoor Recreational Facilities. The facility need is the total facility need for the impact zone based on the weighted population and the facility standards. The total facility need is then multiplied by the absorption percentage to determine the facility need for Lookout Shoals Lake. The acreage needs are then based on the Lookout Shoals Lake facility need multiplied by per unit acreage needs that are based on State SCORPS and FERC Guidelines for Outdoor Recreation Facilities. For Lookout Shoals Lake, it is estimated that 8 acres are required to accommodate future recreational facilities demand through the year 2050. This includes 1 acre of beaches, 1 acre of picnic areas, 2 acres of campsites, and 4 acres of boat ramps.
The estimated acreage needs for the reservoir are total usable acreage needs. Usable land acreage at existing developed public facilities can be counted toward meeting these needs. Duke Power sites, county and state parks, and other private and public agencies will meet these needs. Duke Power is expected to meet a portion of the future recreational land needs. The entire estimated need will be met by a combination of opportunities from all sources.
At Lookout Shoals Lake the most frequently identified recreational facility needs mentioned fishing access and picnic tables. Currently there are two access points where bank fishing can take place. Duke will work with the agencies to identify additional fishing opportunities on the development.
Table 3.4-11
Lookout Shoals Lake Estimated Future Recreational Use
| Activity | Est. 1999 Rec Use | Rec Use 2010 | Rec Use 2020 | Rec Use 2030 | Rec Use 2040 | Rec Use 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Boating* | 9,031 | 9,916 | 10,840 | 12,359 | 14,315 | 16,680 |
| Boat Fishing* | 28,809 | 33,887 | 38,809 | 45,386 | 51,490 | 57,187 |
| Bank/Pier Fish | 15,972 | 18,787 | 21,516 | 25,163 | 28,547 | 31,706 |
| Lake Swimming | 21,868 | 25,160 | 28,481 | 33,479 | 39,803 | 47,739 |
| Canoeing* | 3,612 | 4,104 | 4,555 | 5,382 | 6,600 | 8,406 |
| Jet Skiing* | 12,360 | 13,571 | 14,836 | 16,914 | 19,591 | 22,828 |
| Kayaking* | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tailrace Fishing | 3,612 | 4,249 | 4,866 | 5,691 | 6,456 | 7,171 |
| Sailing* | 2,567 | 2,819 | 3,082 | 3,513 | 4,069 | 4,742 |
| Water Ski/Tubing* | 7,225 | 7,933 | 8,672 | 9,887 | 11,452 | 13,344 |
| Backpacking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunting | 5,419 | 5,719 | 5,945 | 6,326 | 6,563 | 6,771 |
| Tent/Vehicle Camp | 3,612 | 4,817 | 6,260 | 8,256 | 10,716 | 13,724 |
| Windsurfing | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bicycling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Picnicking | 8,747 | 10,498 | 12,413 | 15,198 | 18,637 | 22,858 |
| Sightseeing | 5,419 | 6,706 | 8,123 | 10,067 | 12,455 | 15,303 |
| Hiking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wildlife Viewing | 3,612 | 4,693 | 5,996 | 7,640 | 9,353 | 11,023 |
| Using Playgrounds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sub-total * | 63,604 | 72,230 | 80,794 | 93,441 | 107,517 | 123,187 |
| Total | 131,867 | 152,859 | 174,394 | 205,261 | 240,047 | 279,482 |
*Boating activities
Table 3.4-12
Lookout Shoals Lake Estimated Absorption Percentage for Reservoir
| Activity | Estimated 1999 Participants | Estimated 1999 Demand | Absorption Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swimming | 21,868 | 2,464,026 | 0.9% |
| Picnicking | 8,747 | 1,531,376 | 0.5% |
| Camping | 3,612 | 596,524 | 0.6% |
| Boating | 63,604 | 1,967,481 | 3.2% |
Table 3.4-13
Lookout Shoals Lake Estimated Recreational Facility Land Acreage Needs
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Activity | Year | Weighted Population | Facility Standard | Facility Need | Facility Class | Lake James Share | Acreage |
| Swimming | 2010 | 305,047 | 1 per 50,000 | 6.10 | beaches | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| 2020 | 327,370 | 1 per 50,000 | 6.55 | beaches | 0.06 | 0.32 | |
| 2030 | 365,343 | 1 per 50,000 | 7.31 | beaches | 0.07 | 0.36 | |
| 2040 | 405,773 | 1 per 50,000 | 8.12 | beaches | 0.07 | 0.40 | |
| 2050 | 450,676 | 1 per 50,000 | 9.01 | beaches | 0.08 | 0.45 | |
| Picnicking | 2010 | 366,383 | 1 per 500 | 732.77 | tables | 3.66 | 0.37 |
| 2020 | 393,195 | 1 per 500 | 786.39 | tables | 3.93 | 0.39 | |
| 2030 | 438,804 | 1 per 500 | 877.61 | tables | 4.39 | 0.44 | |
| 2040 | 487,363 | 1 per 500 | 974.73 | tables | 4.90 | 0.49 | |
| 2050 | 541,295 | 1 per 500 | 1,082.59 | tables | 5.49 | 0.55 | |
| Camping | 2010 | 183,192 | 6 per 1,000 | 1,099.15 | campsites | 6.59 | 1.65 |
| 2020 | 196,597 | 6 per 1,000 | 1,179.58 | campsites | 7.08 | 1.77 | |
| 2030 | 219,402 | 6 per 1,000 | 1,316.41 | campsites | 7.90 | 1.97 | |
| 2040 | 243,681 | 6 per 1,000 | 1,462.09 | campsites | 8.83 | 2.21 | |
| 2050 | 270,647 | 6 per 1,000 | 1,623.88 | campsites | 9.88 | 2.47 | |
| Boating | 2010 | 368,019 | 1 per 4000 | 92.00 | boat ramps | 2.94 | 2.94 |
| 2020 | 394,950 | 1 per 4000 | 98.74 | boat ramps | 3.16 | 3.16 | |
| 2030 | 440,763 | 1 per 4000 | 110.19 | boat ramps | 3.53 | 3.53 | |
| 2040 | 489,538 | 1 per 4000 | 122.38 | boat ramps | 3.94 | 3.94 | |
| 2050 | 543,711 | 1 per 4000 | 135.93 | boat ramps | 4.41 | 4.41 | |
| Total Acreage for 2050 | 7.88 | ||||||
